Chapter 1329
The Erbil Dispute
Chapter 1329 The Erbil Dispute
Erbil, the government building of the Kordistan Autonomous Region.
An emergency meeting was convened at 4 a.m., but not everyone arrived until 5 a.m.
Some committee members flew in from Suleimani province, while others came from Duhok.
Five top members of the autonomous council sat around a long conference table, while a screen on the wall displayed live footage from Kirkuk.
The falcon flag of the Abuyu Brigade fluttered above the oil wells that once belonged to the Kolds, and black smoke rose from several burning vehicle wrecks.
Interior Minister Khavor Aziz was the first to break the silence, slamming his fist on the wooden table, making the teacup bounce.
“This is betrayal! Utter betrayal! That bastard Abyu has forgotten that he has the blood of the Kolde people flowing in his veins! His tribe comes from Harabja, and his grandfather died in the Anfar massacre! Now he has turned his gun on his own people!”
What's the point of saying all this now?
Finance Minister Shiva Mahmoud remained relatively calm, but the throbbing veins on his temples betrayed his inner anger. "The key is our reaction. Immediately deploy troops to retake the oil fields, or negotiate?"
Military commander Salahuddin Barzani pulled up an electronic map, and a red dot from a laser pointer circled the Kirkuk region.
“We have fewer than 800 men around Kirkuk, scattered across 12 checkpoints and outposts. The Abuyu Brigade has at least 1,500 men, and heavy weapons. According to reports from the front, they have deployed at least six BMP-1s, four mortars, and possibly anti-tank missiles.”
He switched to the troop deployment map.
"It takes two days to move troops from the rear. Moving troops from Marwol takes even longer, at least three days. Moreover, large-scale mobilization will expose weaknesses in other defensive lines."
"Where are the Americans?"
Foreign Affairs Chief Dial Talabani asked, "Haven't they been coordinating relations between the parties? They should be able to exert pressure."
"I contacted Major General Duke's office."
Talabani rubbed his face wearily. "His senior advisor answered the phone. He expressed 'serious concern' but emphasized that this was 'Iriego's internal affair' and that the United States would not intervene militarily. He only advised both sides to exercise restraint and resolve the matter through dialogue."
The conference room fell into silence.
Everyone understands what this means.
Americans chose neutrality, or rather, they chose a position that better suited their interests.
The Kold's people are important allies of the United States in Iligo, but Abuyu and his boss Song Heping are also among the most important allies of the United States at present.
Following the failure of Operation Balance Beam, the U.S. military reassessed its relationships with various parties, and it was clear that they were unwilling to become deeply involved in local conflicts again.
Why is Abuyu suddenly so bold?
The committee's chairman and oldest member, Masoud Barzani, questioned: "He is already wealthy enough by controlling the southern oil fields, so why would he risk attacking us? There must be someone behind this."
“Samir!” Interior Minister Aziz gritted his teeth. “Or rather, the East Asian man behind Samir. In yesterday’s parliamentary speech, Samir demanded that his troops be incorporated into the National Defense Forces, and we opposed it. And then this happened the very next night… The timing is too coincidental. This is a threat, a blatant threat!”
"Is there any evidence?" Finance Minister Mahmoud asked.
"Do we need evidence?" Aziz countered. "Let's see who benefits the most. If Samir's proposal passes, he will become a regular officer in the National Defense Forces, receiving supplies and legitimacy. Believe it or not, if we compromise and the proposal passes in parliament, Abuyu might withdraw, or at least we can negotiate."
Mahmoud pondered: "You mean, this is a multi-pronged strategy? If we support Samir, Abuyu will stop his offensive; if we continue to oppose him, we'll lose the Kirkuk oil fields?"
"And then tell the whole world that Koldeststein can be intimidated?"
Military commander Barzani stood up and stomped his boot heavily on the floor.
"No! If we back down this time, they'll demand even more next time! The reason we were able to control Kirkuk back then was because we fought! Autonomy isn't something you can negotiate; it's something you have to fight for!"
"But the situation is different now!"
Mahmoud raised his voice, saying, "Back then, we filled the vacuum when the Iligian army collapsed. The situation is different now. We lost too many troops during Operation Balance Beam, and with the recent drop in oil prices and tight budgets, last year's deficit reached $12 billion. Can we afford a full-blown conflict?"
"And there are geopolitical dilemmas!"
The Energy Minister, who had been silent until now, suddenly interjected, "If Samir truly controls the Northwest and becomes a regular army, then Kirdistan will be completely strategically encircled. At that point, we will be an isolated island, and any political demands will lose their bargaining power. That's why we firmly oppose Samir's proposal in parliament!"
Masoud Barzani nodded slowly: "That's the core issue. Samir's rise is not just a military issue, but also a geopolitical one. Once he becomes a regular army and consolidates the northwest, Koldistan's future will depend on him."
"Therefore we must fight back!" Military Commander Barzani insisted. "Not just for the oil fields, but for our living space!"
“But what if the counterattack fails?” Mahmoud countered. “What if we suffer heavy casualties in Kirkuk but fail to retake the oil fields? In that case, we will lose both more resources and our deterrent power. Abuyu will become stronger, Samir’s proposal will pass easily in parliament, and Bakhta may take the opportunity to reclaim our autonomy. Wouldn’t we end up losing on both fronts?”
The meeting room erupted into a heated argument.
The pro-war faction believed that force must be demonstrated immediately, otherwise more territory and negotiating leverage would be lost in the ensuing chain reaction; the pro-peace faction advocated proceeding cautiously, first negotiating to ascertain the other side's bottom line; and the centrists suggested a two-pronged approach, preparing for military action while simultaneously negotiating with Bakhda and Abuyu. Masoud Barzani listened quietly, his face as black as the bottom of a pot.
This 70-year-old man, who has lived through Saddam Hussein's repression, the 1991 uprising, the 2003 war, and the 2014 crisis, understands how delicate the situation of the Kold'd people is.
Finally, he raised his hand, and the conference room fell silent instantly.
“Salahuddin,” he asked the military commander, “when is the fastest you can muster enough troops if we retaliate? I need to hear the real story.”
"Two battalions can be drawn from Mahot and one battalion from Suleimani province. Combined with the existing forces, a regimental-level counterattack can be launched in as little as 48 hours."
Barzani replied, but added, "But the Abuyu Brigade has already established defensive fortifications, and according to reconnaissance reports, they are also equipped with a large number of night vision devices and anti-tank missiles, which they did not have before. A direct assault would result in heavy casualties."
"Casualty prediction?"
"Recapturing the oilfield area will result in at least a thousand casualties. If the Abuyu Brigade puts up a fierce resistance, the number could double."
Massoud closed his eyes.
"Prepare for military action. Salah al-Din, you are in full command."
His voice was heavy.
"But at the same time, Diyar, you immediately contact Bakda and request an emergency meeting. Tell them that if Samir's proposal passes in parliament, we can reconsider our position. But don't make us look weak. This is negotiation, not surrender."
“What about Abu Yu?” Mahmoud asked.
Masoud pondered for a moment: "Don't contact him directly for now. But spread the word: if he stops his attacks, we can negotiate with him, or even with his boss. After all, he was once one of us."
This statement has sparked controversy.
Interior Minister Aziz immediately objected: "Mr. President, this is tantamount to admitting the status of a traitor! This would set a terrible precedent!"
"Be realistic, Cavo."
Massoud said, "Abuyu has taken control of the entire Kirkuk oil field, and he has the resources we need. And if our analysis is correct, he is in cahoots with Samir and Song Heping. You can fight Abuyu and have a chance of winning, but what if Song Heping gets involved?! Can you win? Politics is not about acting on impulse."
He stood up, signaling the end of the meeting.
“Salahuddin, you go and prepare for military action. Diyar, you go and arrange negotiations. The rest of you, think about the future of the Koldeid Autonomous Region. We are at a crossroads, and every decision could affect our fate for decades to come.”
The order was given when it was already daylight.
The streets of Erbil are beginning to awaken, with vendors pushing breakfast carts and commuters hurrying by.
Few people know that 150 kilometers away, a conflict that could change the future of Kirdistan is brewing; and few people know that in Bakda, another decisive negotiation is about to begin.
What the committee members were unaware of was that the Abuyu Brigade had not only laid a dense minefield and fortifications, but had also received explicit instructions from Song Heping.
If the Kolds launch a full-scale attack, fight back resolutely; if they negotiate, set forth your terms—
Abuyu returned to the autonomous council and gained a say in energy and military affairs.
No one noticed that in a hotel room in the Green Zone of Bakta, Song Heping had just received two encrypted messages.
The first report comes from Abyu: "The oil field is under control. Casualties: 17 dead, 43 wounded. The Kordi are gathering forces, but are also signaling for negotiations."
The second message came from Yusuf: "Urgent news: The Kolds have requested a party coordination meeting at 3 p.m. today to discuss the current security situation and parliamentary proposals. They have relented, but require your personal attendance."
Song Heping deleted the message and looked out the window at the rising sun.
The Tigris River gleamed in the morning light, and egrets took flight from the reeds along its banks.
He recalled a saying from the Art of War: "The best strategy is to attack the enemy's plans; the next best is to disrupt their alliances; the next best is to attack their army; and the worst is to besiege their cities."
This afternoon, he will personally step onto the political stage in Bakhta.
Meanwhile, 300 kilometers away, Kold and Abuyu's armies were locked in a standoff.
Two negotiating tables, one battlefield, interconnected, each a bargaining chip for the other.
The real players are never on the battlefield, but in a quiet room.
He sent Samir a short message: "Prepare for the afternoon meeting. Put on your uniform and your medals. Today, we will show everyone who the masters of the Northwest are."
Second update, will continue writing and updating this afternoon.
(End of this chapter)