Chapter 648
Lobbying
Chapter 648 Lobbying (4k)
Yu Xing heard Bi Sheng relay Pony's wishes and was not surprised by the user scale target he mentioned.
Based on its current development trend, Pinduoduo is expected to reach 1 million users by mid-year or the second half of the year. If it can be boosted by traffic from multiple sources, 2 million users is not out of reach.
He discussed this figure internally with Silicon Carbon Data, consulted Xu Xin who was well-versed in e-commerce development, and then spoke with Bi Sheng. His opinion was that Pony had clearly made plans.
Pinduoduo currently has 4200 million users and 800 million monthly active users. Assuming 2 million users and 3800 million monthly active users, a GMV of 500 billion is not an unattainable goal. However, achieving it is one thing, but whether it can make money is another.
Furthermore, the goal for the second year is clearly to require Pinduoduo to continue to maintain high growth.
Xu Xin's view is: "To put it bluntly, Pinduoduo's strategy is to offer white-label products at low prices with free shipping. It uses social sharing to seize Taobao's long-tail product market. Bi Sheng is now making agricultural products, daily necessities, and home furnishings. I feel that there is still great growth potential."
"If we can facilitate resource cooperation, that would be a good thing and worth a try."
"As long as you take the right path in the mobile internet, the development speed will be fast. This was also the case when Liu Qiangdong raised funds. Investors set high targets based on their own understanding, but he found it simple."
"President Yu, even I think it's worth doing, so what are you hesitating for?"
During the phone conversation, Xu Xin made a pointed remark, indicating that she previously did not believe that a project like Pinduoduo could disrupt the existing e-commerce landscape.
The industry's view over the past two years has been largely consistent: Taobao and JD.com are going to dominate the domestic e-commerce landscape. Vertical e-commerce platforms, if not completely dead, are just leftovers.
Following Yu Xing's advice, Xu Xin personally experienced the lower-tier market, and her stance immediately underwent a dramatic change.
She is now a staunch supporter of Pinduoduo's development.
Yu Xing laughed and said, "Of course you investors would be willing. I'm trying to consider this from Bi Sheng's perspective. If the performance-based agreement is signed and Pinduoduo doesn't meet expectations, you'll find all sorts of ways to exploit it. I'm not hesitant about Pinduoduo's future, but I'm unsure about its growth rate in the next few years."
Xu Xin inquired about the general outline of the cooperation and repeatedly expressed her opinion that even if it was a performance-based agreement, it should be signed without hesitation.
Yu Xing understood Xu Xin's attitude, but still didn't completely believe what she said, so he went to ask Li Song to find out what her judgment was in private.
When asked by Ms. Yu, Li Song answered without hesitation: "She is very optimistic about Pinduoduo. She told me that this may be the second JD.com that Today Capital is going to invest in. I was wondering about that."
Capital Today invested $500 million last February, and after the entry of Penguin-backed funds, it now holds a 6.75% stake.
Yu Xing understood, and later mentioned the idea of "the second JD.com" in his communication with Xu Xin.
Xu Xin didn't say anything on the phone, but she became furious when Li Song came home that evening.
When Li Song got home, he felt a pang of anxiety when he saw his wife sitting on the sofa with her arms crossed.
"I've never told anyone that I think Pinduoduo is the next JD.com," Xu Xin said coldly. "How did Yu Xing know that?"
Li Song's eyes darted around, and he sighed, "Well, well, it seems that President Yu has some doubts about the investment cooperation with Pinduoduo. I happened to go to the office yesterday to organize some materials, and then I offered a few words of advice. I'm not an expert in investment, so I certainly can't use my opinion. I just told him that you're optimistic about it, which is a good thing. I heard that he's already pushing it forward."
Hearing the reasonable explanation, Xu Xin softened her tone, but still frowned and said, "Don't talk nonsense about me. Whose side are you on? Why haven't I heard you mention anything about Yu Xing's side? What have you been busy with all day since you went to the carbon silicon company after the New Year?"
Li Song said awkwardly, "What could I be busy with? I was just curious about the subsequent operations of Guoshan Peak. It's not that I didn't want to tell you, it's just that they didn't tell me anything at all."
Regarding the leads on investment banks manipulating the silver market, this information has been explicitly stated as not to be disclosed to the public.
Li Song himself knew that the matter was of great importance, involving not only the investigation of major investment banks, but also the legal battles with Guo Shanfeng, and the fact that he still wanted to achieve success in short selling.
Mr. Yu has expressed his trust; how can we let him down?
It's better than a confidentiality agreement even without one!
Xu Xin looked at her husband suspiciously and shook her head: "Pinduoduo has a chance to take off now, but I don't know if we can make it happen. JD.com is an e-commerce company, and Meituan doesn't know how it plans its business in the future. It may also be in potential competition with this kind of social fission product. Baidu is a slow and steady company."
Li Song thought for a moment: "Now that companies have grown big, they all build platforms. Meituan's user base also includes a portion that is price-sensitive. This is quite similar to Pinduoduo. If Pinduoduo can capture most of the lower-tier market, it will definitely have to think about upgrading and expanding its business in the future. There are only so many people in China, so we will inevitably have to compete in the future."
Xu Xin sighed: "Yes, this is potential competition. I wonder if President Yu and Pony can make it happen."
Li Song's opinion this time was quite confident: "I think it will definitely work. Their past conflicts were so serious that even Liu Chiping was poached to Lingang. Now they are both being pushed to the brink of cooperation by Alibaba. Well, people like them will do their best once they make up their minds."
Xu Xin nodded this time. She now believes that Taobao's understanding and judgment of the lower-tier market is clearly problematic, which is very likely a strategic misjudgment.
However, she did not expect that she would soon be invited to the capital for a secret meeting.
In Baidu's conference room, Pony Ma, Li Yanhong, Bi Sheng, and Xu Xin were present. The first three had already spoken once, and Xu Xin was invited in for the second time.
"Mr. Xu, Pony saw that I was unwilling to invest in Pinduoduo, so he specially invited you here this time. I'm really sorry to trouble you." Li Yanhong said very politely.
Xu Xin smiled and said, "It's no trouble at all. I'm an investor in Pinduoduo, and this is in itself an effort to create opportunities for Pinduoduo."
Li Yanhong nodded, and said with a hint of sarcasm, "I heard that President Yu is in charge of this, but why hasn't he come over? He certainly has a big ego."
Pony Ma had already spoken with Li Yanhong once, so hearing this now felt a bit strange: "He supports it, isn't that enough? Do you have a problem with him? It's just a small matter over a forum, it's not a big deal."
Li Yanhong gave a fake laugh, slightly raised her chin, and said with dissatisfaction, "He's a big short seller. He was probably involved in the previous drop in Baidu's stock price. No wonder Baixiaosheng Forum refused to budge no matter what. They just wanted to cooperate with the public opinion campaign."
Xu Xin was shocked. Had President Yu shorted Baidu?
I've never heard him mention that before.
She thought about it again and hesitated. It didn't seem impossible. Surely it wasn't just Mr. Li's wild guess.
Baidu's stock performance in recent years has not been good, and it has fallen behind the BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) group. It has also experienced several major drops, such as in July last year when Baidu's stock price once dropped by 18% during trading.
However, the market interpreted that the decline was in line with its Q2 financial report, which stated that Baidu's large-scale investment in O2O led to a decrease in operating profit, and that its Q3 performance outlook was lower than expected.
This seems to have nothing to do with crossing mountains.
Xu Xin silently reflected, feeling that Baidu's stock price seemed to be due to its own weakness rather than the negative impact of Shanfeng. Pony Ma was more direct: "I've never heard of Shanfeng issuing a report targeting Baidu. If we're just making things up, then it's pointless. Now is a good opportunity to invest in e-commerce. Robin, I made my point clear last time: this is a key move to contain Alibaba's e-commerce business."
Alibaba has been fiercely competing with Tencent in recent years, but it has also been in constant competition with Baidu. In addition to map navigation, Alibaba launched "Shenma Search" with UC two years ago, venturing into Baidu's core search business.
The two companies also had some public relations clashes at the time, with Baidu using technical means to block Shenma search results, while UC accused the former of unfair competition.
However, Shenma Search was developed based on UC Browser, and now it has a 20% market share in the mobile search market, making it the second largest search engine.
In addition, group buying, ride-hailing, and payment services all face competition to varying degrees.
Today's giants are no longer limited to their core businesses. Their tentacles extending into other fields naturally collide with each other, and Alibaba almost always comes out on top.
Li Yanhong looked at Pony Ma with a smile: "Pony, your assertion makes it hard for me not to doubt that Tencent's progress in the e-commerce field is not satisfactory."
Pony Ma remained unfazed: "That's why we invited Ms. Xu today. Her insistence on investing in JD.com back then is a well-known story in the industry. She also invested in Silicon Carbon Group and Silicon Carbon Data in succession. Her vision is beyond doubt. Mr. Yu and I both believe in her judgment that Pinduoduo is the next JD.com."
Upon hearing this assessment, Xu Xin couldn't help but smile, even though her teeth were itching.
Li Yanhong glanced at President Xu, then regained her politeness: "President Xu, please have a chat with me."
Xu Xin is playing the role of a professional today.
She spoke eloquently, and her entry point immediately captivated even Bi Sheng: "I never believed that Pinduoduo could succeed before. In fact, it was Mr. Yu who recommended it, but I thought he was being delusional. Then, he gave me some advice."
"A little earlier last year than today, I made a plan to work overtime during the Spring Festival and went deep into the rural areas of central China to see firsthand the shopping needs and living environment in this lower-tier market."
"I immediately invested in Pinduoduo after I came back."
"China's lower-tier market is larger than imagined. Alibaba's actions in this area have been slow and superficial. I used to think that Alibaba was already doing it, but after truly understanding it, I changed my mind as well."
Xu Xin switched to Alibaba, a competitor, to leverage "Rural Taobao" to target the lower-tier market.
At first, Li Yanhong didn't take it seriously, but as she listened and combined it with the key figures in Pinduoduo's development given by Xu Xin, she gradually felt that it made some sense.
Xu Xin spoke for forty minutes without stopping, and the three people in the conference room did not interrupt her at all, except when they were drinking tea.
She concluded by saying, "Alibaba's neglect of Pinduoduo's rise in the lower-tier market will inevitably have a profound impact; this is a serious strategic misjudgment."
Li Yanhong's brows had unconsciously furrowed.
Pony Ma offered his praise: "If Mr. Xu's words were spoken to those people at Alibaba, they would probably change their strategy."
Xu Xin turned her attention to the minor character: "This is all thanks to President Bi's efforts in actual development. Without Pinduoduo's development, all of this would just be castles in the air."
“Mr. Xu had good foresight to invest back then,” Pony Ma said objectively. “This also proves Mr. Yu’s foresight once again. He is indeed astute as someone who does short selling.”
Upon hearing this, Li Yanhong said, "Pony, everyone says that although Guoshanfeng didn't release a report on Tencent, they did short your stock back then, specifically when Yu Xing sold WeChat to Alibaba?"
Pony Ma said calmly, "Even if there were, I wouldn't mind. The past is the past; now we should talk about the future."
Li Yanhong sensed a ruthless intent in this seemingly indifferent tone, believing that even if Baidu didn't participate, Tencent would definitely push Pinduoduo further.
He thought about it carefully for a while, then looked at Bi Sheng and asked, "Mr. Bi, do you have confidence?"
Bi Sheng smiled bitterly to himself; these people only asked him at the very end.
Unlike his previous answer in Shenzhen, this time he replied decisively, "I have confidence! I can do Alibaba!"
Li Yanhong smiled.
He nodded: "Thank you for your hard work, Mr. Xu and Mr. Bi. Pony, it takes a lot of determination for you to make this trip in person."
Pony nodded: "I trust Mr. Yu's judgment. Although he is quite wicked, his wickedness will not be a problem in this collaboration."
Li Yanhong laughed again. Indeed, bad as she may be, no one doubted her judgment.
He stood up and shook hands with Pony Ma, agreeing to the cooperation with Pinduoduo.
Xu Xin felt that the collaboration led by Pony was going more smoothly than expected. However, during dinner that evening, she heard many complaints about Alibaba and felt that the pressure from the giant outside the company might be a major contributing factor.
During the meal, she heard Pony mention Mr. Yu's statement again.
"Alibaba is warming up with a 10 billion yuan subsidy in short videos. I talked to Mr. Yu last time, and Pinduoduo could also launch a '10 billion yuan subsidy' to see if it can really ignite the battle in Alibaba's home e-commerce market."
Xu Xin pondered the matter of the 10 billion yuan subsidy and thought of her husband again.
What is Li Song doing all day long with silicon carbon? He hasn't managed to get any useful information at all!
……
The roadshow for the Silicon Carbon Group is not yet over, and Yu Xing will need to fly to Hong Kong after the New Year to continue this work.
However, just as he was about to fly to Hong Kong, Jia Yueting, who was far away in the United States, suddenly became active again.
This time, Jia Yueting, a veteran in China's internet and new energy industries, accepted an interview with Wall Street media and publicly expressed his pessimism about the future of Silicon Carbon Group.
“Silicon Carbon Group is just a company that relies on government subsidies. Range-extended vehicles have no future, and neither does Silicon Carbon Group.”
Short seller Chanos shared this news, also expressing his pessimism about the future stock price of Silicon Carbon Group.
Clearly, Jia Yueting, upon arriving in New York, quickly found a job opportunity after being laid off, which was then used by short sellers as a weapon to attack Silicon Carbon Group.
(End of this chapter)