Seminar

The lights in Loran's apartment stayed on all night.

He laid out all the battle case analyses from his father's folder, the data from his own notebook, and all his knowledge of France's current deployments on his desk.

He began to gather all possible evidence in his mind, weaving an irrefutable chain of logic.

Instead of attempting to depict a macro-level picture of the entire war, which would only be dismissed as fantasy, we focus on one point: If the German mechanized forces were to attempt to cross the Ardennes Forest, what would they need? What difficulties would they encounter? How could the existing French deployments be neutralized and defeated?

He cited his father's documents about the Verdun communications failure that led to the division and encirclement of the troops.

He inserted a description from his phone's files about the inability of early radars to detect low-altitude targets.

He drew a simple map, marking several key road bottlenecks and bridges in the Ardennes region, and estimated the shortest time it would take for French reserves to reach these locations from their rear posts, comparing it with the possible speed of advance of German armored forces.

The results were alarming: the time window was extremely narrow, and the margin for error was almost zero.

He even deduced its operational radius and potential escort requirements based on that photograph of the Stuka, pointing out how the distribution of French forward airfields could be utilized.

Finally, he condensed all of this into a briefing of no more than five pages.

The language is stern and objective, full of data and citations, and strives to avoid emotional predictions, instead presenting an extreme risk deduction based on public intelligence and military logic.

The final title is:

Preliminary assessment of potential tactical risks in the Ardennes Forest-Meuse River direction and limited response recommendations.

After all this was done, the sky outside the window was already beginning to lighten with the first hint of dawn.

Loran closed his pen and looked at the briefing on the table, which contained the fruits of his labor the previous night, and the letter from his father beside it.

He walked to the window and gazed at Paris as it gradually awoke in the morning light; the city's outline was gentle and serene.

"Either become a laughing stock,"

"Or, sound the first alarm."

......

Three days passed in the blink of an eye, and the city remained a gray and white expanse.

The General Staff building, located near Les Invalides in Paris, is a magnificent but conservative stone building that exudes the grandeur and decline of the imperial era.

Lorraine, dressed in his most presentable dark gray suit and carrying a briefcase containing briefings and his father's letters, stood at the foot of the cold marble steps, feeling as insignificant as a speck of dust.

The officers coming and going wore crisp uniforms, their leather shoes clicking crisply on the ground. They chatted, occasionally casting curious or indifferent glances at Loran. Here, his civilian attire seemed completely out of place.

After presenting the special pass that Colonel Delian's adjutant had hastily delivered the previous night, the guard carefully checked his name and photograph before waving him through. The corridor was deep and dark, with high ceilings and portraits of past generals and huge battle maps hanging on the walls. A faint smell of cigars filled the air.

The conference room where the seminar was being held was at the far end of the second floor. As Loran approached the door, he could already hear low voices talking inside. He took a deep breath and pushed open the heavy oak door.

The room was large, and a dozen or so people were already seated around the rectangular conference table. They were all in military uniforms, ranging from elderly generals with gray hair and chests adorned with medals to young but capable field officers and lieutenant officers like Lieutenant Marchand. Only a couple of people were dressed in civilian clothes, appearing to be hired civilian consultants. All eyes immediately focused on the abrupt intruder at the door.

Surprise, doubt, displeasure—a variety of emotions flashed through those gazes.

Lorraine felt a tightness in his back, but he forced himself to straighten up and calmly scanned the room, finally settling on a man in his forties next to the head of the table. He had a thin, stern face and sharp eyes. He was his father’s old friend, Colonel Delian.

The colonel gave him a barely perceptible nod and pointed to a seat at the end of the long table that was clearly a temporary addition.

Loran walked over and sat down silently. He could feel the air around him become somewhat subtly altered by the presence of this commoner.

The meeting began. The chairperson was an elderly man with the rank of major general, who calmly introduced the topic: "Resilient Assessment and Prospects of Border Defense under Modern Conditions".

Then, several officers from different departments began to speak.

The content of the speech made Loran's heart sink little by little.

An engineering colonel in charge of a section of the Maginot Line described in detail, with pride, the thickness of the concrete fortifications, the power of the armored turrets, and the sophistication of the underground facilities. "It can be said that our line is the strongest shield in Europe, even the world. Any attempt by the Germans to launch a frontal attack will be met with disastrous consequences here."

A lieutenant colonel from the intelligence service reported on the latest movements of German forces on the Western Front, concluding that: "Enemy activity remains at a low level, with no clear signs of large-scale mobilization or offensive preparations. Fortification work on the Siegfried Line is also underway, which is more like a defensive posture."

Next, a brigadier general representing the Operations Bureau of the General Staff used a pointer to draw the deployment positions of a famous French main force division and reserves on a map, emphasizing the concepts of defense in depth and flexible response. "Even in the event of a local accident, our powerful reserves can quickly seal any gaps and annihilate the invading enemy."

The atmosphere was confident, even complacent. Occasionally, someone would mention "the need for vigilance" or "the inability to completely rule out unforeseen circumstances," but these were quickly drowned out by the grander theme of "overall advantage." As Loran listened to these familiar words, it was as if he were witnessing that ironic footnote in a history textbook being written on the spot.

He noted that not everyone accepted it entirely.

Lieutenant Marchand sat a little further away, expressionless, but his fingers unconsciously tapped lightly on the table. Colonel Delian, on the other hand, kept his brows slightly furrowed, his gaze occasionally sweeping over the speaker before settling back on the documents in front of him, revealing neither his joy nor anger.

Finally, a slight disagreement arose in the discussion about whether the warning time for the Belgian border region was sufficient. One more cautious officer believed that the warning time might be less than 24 hours, while another optimistically thought it was at least 48 hours.

"Gentlemen," Colonel Derain, who had been silent until now, suddenly spoke, his voice not loud, but instantly silencing the conference room, "theoretical analysis is important, but we also need to hear different perspectives, especially those derived from historical and case studies." His gaze shifted to the end of the long table. "Mr. Loran, as the non-military historical and geographical advisor specially invited to this meeting, what are your thoughts on this? Based on your research, do you believe there are blind spots in our preparedness for contingencies?"

coming.

All eyes were once again focused on Loran, this time with scrutiny and evaluation.

Loran stood up. He could feel his palms sweating slightly, but his voice was surprisingly steady: "Thank you, Colonel. Generals, officers. My field of study is not contemporary military deployment, but historical battles, especially those lost due to terrain misjudgment, communication failures, and rigid command."

He paused, opened his briefcase, but instead of immediately taking out the briefing, he picked up his father's green folder first.

"I have a copy of an internal reflection report from the Battle of Verdun." He read aloud a passage in a clear and calm tone about how communications were completely paralyzed in complex terrain, leading to the annihilation of an entire battalion right under the noses of friendly forces. After reading it, he looked up and said, without any intonation:

"This report points out that in certain terrains, the vulnerability of command systems can be amplified dramatically. Have the reliability of the radio and telephone networks we currently rely on undergone the same rigorous assessments in adverse weather, complex terrain, or under targeted jamming?"

An old general waved his hand impatiently: "History has lessons to teach, but this is 1939, not 1916. Our communication technology has improved."

"Technology advances, but geography remains the same, and so may the weaknesses of human nature," Loran responded calmly, then turned to the large war zone map on the wall. "For example, in the Ardennes Forest, the terrain is far more complex and the roads are far fewer than in the hills around Verdun. Suppose, just suppose, a highly mechanized enemy force were to force its way through at any cost, their vanguard might reach the banks of the Meuse River much faster than expected."

He walked to the map and, using the pointer handed to him by his adjutant Drian, pointed out several key points: "Based on publicly available road data and topographical maps, under ideal conditions, armored forces could advance from the border to the Meuse River bridge near Sedan in just 48 to 60 hours. However, our troops deployed on the second line as strategic reserves would need almost the same, or even longer, time to move from their garrisons to these key bridge areas via the existing road network, even without considering enemy air raids and road blockages."

A low murmur arose in the conference room.

"Ridiculous!" a brigadier general who had previously spoken optimistically couldn't help but retort. "The Ardennes Forest? Even horse-drawn carriages would have a hard time navigating there, let alone tanks and artillery! The Germans wouldn't be stupid enough to send their elite armored forces into that labyrinth! Your assumptions are based on sand, young man!"

"That's the most dangerous mindset, General." Loran's voice rose slightly, carrying a resolute force. "In 1914, the Germans also believed the Ardennes were impassable on a large scale, but their right wing still attempted to cross, and almost succeeded. Today, the off-road capabilities of tanks and the speed at which engineers can build bridges are vastly different." He then dropped an even more impactful detail: "Based on my analysis of German military publications and some scattered technical intelligence, their Panzer III and IV tanks, especially the newer models, may have had their power-to-weight ratio and ability to traverse complex terrain severely underestimated. Their engineer battalions are equipped with highly efficient mechanized bridge-building equipment."

"Technical intelligence? Where is the technical intelligence?" The lieutenant colonel from the intelligence department keenly grasped the key point, his eyes sharp.

Loran was prepared. He returned to his seat and took out a page from his briefing, which contained some data he had deduced from photos on his phone regarding early models of the Panzer IV. "Here are some preliminary estimates, extracted from images brought back from the Polish battlefield, showing specific weaknesses in its side armor protection at certain angles, but also indicating that its power system was sufficient to handle moderately rugged terrain."

Several officers took the papers that were passed to them, carefully examining the hand-drawn diagrams and data on them, their brows furrowed. Although the data was scattered, its professionalism and specificity suggested that it couldn't have been fabricated out of thin air by a layman.

The doubts didn't stop; in fact, they grew stronger. The brigadier general's face flushed red: "Even if the tanks can get through, what about their logistics? Fuel, ammunition, infantry support? Without air superiority, a lone armored unit deep in enemy territory is just a sitting duck!"

"What if they also gain localized, temporary air superiority?" Loran immediately interjected, pulling out another page of the briefing. "Based on analysis of publicly available aviation magazines and limited exercise reports, the Luftwaffe's Stuka dive bombers, with their precision strike capabilities, particularly their destructive power against fixed fortifications and transportation hubs, could be used to pave the way for armored vanguards. Their core tactics seem to be 'lightning-fast breakthroughs, followed by reckless penetrations into the enemy's rear, disrupting our entire defense system,' rather than traditional, steady advances."

He reiterated the "Condor" call sign and cautiously added: "Unofficial academic exchanges suggest that certain German attack aircraft squadrons are conducting targeted training in close coordination with armored forces."

"Enough!" The old general finally couldn't hold back any longer, slamming his hand on the table. His voice was authoritative. "Mr. Loran, your speculation is full of possibilities, assumptions, and supposedly. This is a serious military meeting, not a university history debate! Are you implying that our decades-long, costly defense lines and deployment plans have fundamental flaws? That's defeatist rhetoric!"

The moment that word was uttered, the atmosphere in the meeting room instantly plummeted to freezing point.

"Defeatism" is a terrible accusation in wartime that can ruin the future or even the life of any soldier or civilian.

All eyes turned to Colonel Delian and the major general presiding over the meeting. Lieutenant Marchand stopped tapping, leaned forward slightly, and smiled. He wanted to see how Lorraine would shut the old general up.

Loran felt his heart pounding in his chest, but he knew he couldn't back down now.

He met the old general's angry gaze, his tone becoming even calmer: "General, pointing out risks is not defeatism, but rather a way to prevent failure. My research shows that our greatest risk is not that our defenses are not strong enough, but that our mental defenses have gaps. We assume that certain things are absolutely impossible, thus abandoning rigorous worst-case scenario simulations and preparations. History tells us that where things seem impossible, disaster often begins."

He held up his father's folder and the briefing: "All my analyses here are based on verifiable historical battles, publicly available geographical data, and rational inferences from existing technical intelligence. I am not demanding an immediate change to the entire strategy, but rather suggesting that, at the very least, we should reassess, with the utmost rigor, the early warning time, the reserve response speed, and contingency defense plans for key nodes in the Ardennes-Meuse direction. This is not defeatism, but rather the most basic military caution."

A deathly silence fell over the meeting room. Loran's words were clear, well-documented, and skillfully avoided direct prediction, instead emphasizing risk assessment and contingency plan review. This left pure anger somewhat powerless.

At this moment, the intelligence lieutenant colonel suddenly spoke up, his tone filled with deep doubt: "Mr. Loran, could you reveal more specific sources for the 'Condor' call sign you just mentioned, and the 'academic exchange information' regarding the joint training of Stuka and armored forces? Because according to our very limited internal intelligence feedback, the German Luftwaffe's 77th Dive Bomber Wing has indeed recently been using a tactical code name similar to 'Condor'."

These words shocked everyone present!

Even the furious old general looked astonished.