Chapter 887
Soros's Wishful Thinking!
Place the gift box in the safe and lock it.
I glanced at the clock on the wall and realized it was almost three o'clock.
A gentle voice came through the walkie-talkie from the building's receptionist, saying that Mr. George Soros had arrived downstairs.
"Bring him up," Lin Haoran ordered directly.
He then placed a recorder under the coffee table in the reception room and pressed the record button.
To be honest, Lin Haoran was really reluctant to get too involved with this financial tycoon who would stop at nothing to make money.
The other party is a completely different person from Warren Buffett.
Buffett prefers value investing and pursues long-term, steady growth. His investment philosophy and lifestyle are more in line with traditional business ethics.
Therefore, Buffett has always been respected and even regarded as a mentor and role model by investors around the world.
Soros, on the other hand, believes in the theory of "market reflexivity," arguing that the market is always making mistakes, and his mission is to discover these mistakes and use them to make huge profits, even if the process exacerbates market volatility or even triggers regional crises.
In Soros's view, he is merely an executor and corrector of market rules.
But in the eyes of many, especially the people and governments of the countries he targeted, he was a ruthless financial predator and market disruptor.
The two have very different ideas and styles of doing things.
It can be said that a person like Soros is destined to be infamous, and whoever gets involved with him will suffer.
But in any case, Soros has arrived, and he has taken the initiative to seek a meeting with him.
After a moment's thought, Lin Haoran asked Ma Shimin's assistant next door to prepare tea.
He also sorted out his thoughts, calmed his excitement at receiving the gift, and returned to his usual calm and wise state.
A few minutes later, there was a gentle knock on the office door, and then a man of medium build with a broad forehead and wearing his signature gold-rimmed glasses walked in, led by his assistant.
He looked more energetic than his actual age, with sharp, inquisitive eyes and a faint smile on his lips—it was George Soros.
Today, Soros is clearly not as famous as he will be in later generations, and his actions are not as unscrupulous, but his inherent speculative nature and keen sense of market loopholes have already been revealed.
"Mr. Lin, I apologize for the intrusion. Thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule." Soros extended his hand, his voice not loud, but carrying an undeniable presence.
“Mr. Soros, welcome, please have a seat.” Lin Haoran stood up, shook hands with him, and then gestured for him to sit on the sofa in the reception area.
After serving the top-grade Longjing tea, the assistant quietly withdrew.
"First of all, please allow me to congratulate you on your upcoming wedding. This grand event has attracted worldwide attention, which is a testament to your influence in Hong Kong and even internationally, Mr. Lin." Soros's opening remarks were flattering, but his eyes held curiosity.
After investigating Lin Haoran's rise to power, Soros was filled with admiration for this young tycoon from the East because of the series of unbelievable business maneuvers he had witnessed.
There aren't many people in the world who deserve Soros's respect, and he doesn't even care much about some financial tycoons.
But he greatly admired Lin Haoran!
When Soros shorted Motorola, he suspected that Lin Haoran was competing with them for shares, but he had no evidence.
Therefore, in Soros's mind, Lin Haoran was the same kind of person as him.
In any industry, strong individuals deserve respect, regardless of age.
"Mr. Soros, you flatter me. It's just my friends being too kind," Lin Haoran said in a flat tone, neither overly enthusiastic nor impolite.
He knew that with someone like Soros, one should only listen to superficial compliments; his true intentions were often hidden behind them.
Soros picked up his teacup, gently sniffed the aroma of the tea, but did not drink it.
His gaze fell on Lin Haoran's face, with a hint of inquiry: "Mr. Lin, I am a straightforward person. Besides congratulating you, I mainly want to have a chat with you."
I have studied your investment trajectory over the past few years, including crude oil, stocks, financing, and your recent involvement in Hong Kong Properties. The precision of your timing and the depth of your planning are truly remarkable.
This cannot be explained simply by luck or an informational advantage.
Upon hearing this, Lin Haoran thought to himself, "Just as I thought."
He guessed that perhaps the other party was so interested in him because of his numerous investment activities.
Speculators like Soros have an almost instinctive desire to explore any unconventional success model and an impulse to incorporate it into their own cognitive framework.
"Mr. Soros, you flatter me." Lin Haoran's expression remained unchanged, and his tone remained calm.
"There is always uncertainty in the market, and any judgment carries risks. I was just lucky, and with the support of my team's analysis, I was able to make relatively correct choices at critical moments."
His identity as a time traveler was the biggest advantage that allowed him to rise to power.
However, these things will always remain his secret alone.
"Luck? Team analysis?" Soros's smile deepened, as if he had heard something interesting.
"Mr. Lin, you are too modest. Some opportunities cannot be captured by luck and conventional analysis. For example, the accurate warning of the US stock market last year, and the earlier judgment on the oil crisis."
These turning points are often hidden amidst thick fog and contrary to mainstream opinion. To so resolutely go against the grain and achieve such great success requires not only courage, but also an almost intuitive insight.
He paused for a moment, then continued, "I'm curious, Mr. Lin, what is the source of your insight?"
Is it a profound understanding of historical cycles? Is it a precise grasp of human greed and fear? Or is it a unique model of the operating principles of the economic system that we have not yet fully comprehended?
Upon hearing this, Lin Haoran couldn't help but laugh.
If it were someone else, they would still be struggling with how to answer the other person.
But he didn't need to think at all.
He casually remarked, "Mr. Soros, don't you think your question is a bit too private? If it were you, would you tell someone your true investment philosophy? Would you tell someone you've just met, someone who might even become your future competitor, without reservation?"
Lin Haoran's question was straightforward, even carrying a hint of gentle teasing, which made Soros pause slightly.
He hadn't expected Lin Haoran to refuse to discuss the matter further so frankly in this way.
Soros's usual smile froze for a moment, then turned into a deeper amusement.
He adjusted his glasses, not annoyed by the slightly offensive question, but instead nodded: "Mr. Lin is right, I was being presumptuous."
Every successful person has their own core strengths they don't want to reveal, just as a chef won't easily disclose their secret recipe, and a magician won't reveal the mechanisms behind their magic.
"So, Mr. Soros's purpose in coming to Hong Kong this time is certainly not these things, right? You might as well speak frankly. If I can help, I will naturally be happy to do so as long as it does not violate my principles. After all, he is a guest."
Lin Haoran regained control of the conversation, his smile remaining calm, but his eyes conveying a straightforward "get to the point" attitude.
Soros appreciates this efficiency.
He stopped beating around the bush and said directly, "Mr. Lin is a man of few words. To be honest, besides congratulating you on your wedding, I do have a major matter to discuss with you."
Lin Haoran remained silent, waiting for what would happen next.
"I wonder if Mr. Lin has noticed that Mexico's foreign debt is a bit too high and its inflation is too high?" Soros said with a smile.
Lin Haoran's heart suddenly skipped a beat!
Mexico's foreign debt?
inflation?
These two keywords instantly connected a crucial historical moment in his memory!
How could he not remember?
This August, the Mexican government will announce its inability to repay the principal and interest on its maturing foreign debt, thus triggering the "Latin American debt crisis" that will sweep across Latin America and even affect the world!
This crisis is considered one of the most severe financial crises in developing countries in the 1980s, directly leading to Latin America's "lost decade."
It's February now, and there are still six months until the crisis officially breaks out.
But Soros's suggestion at this time clearly indicates that he has keenly sensed the enormous risks involved, as well as the potential huge short-selling opportunities!
Soros truly lives up to his name; his vision has already been set on the eye of the storm brewing globally.
His coming to my door now is clearly not just to share information.
Lin Haoran remained expressionless, merely nodding slightly to indicate that he was aware of the situation: "I have heard a little about Mexico's economic situation."
Fluctuations in oil export revenues, a massive foreign debt, and persistently high inflation do indeed present some structural problems. Mr. Soros, do you have any insightful views on this?
A glint flashed in Soros's eyes. Lin Haoran's calm reaction made him even more convinced that this Eastern tycoon was no ordinary person and also had a keen insight into the international macro situation.
“It’s not just an opinion, Mr. Lin.”
Soros sat up straight, lowered his voice, and spoke with the solemnity of someone sharing a secret.
"We believe that the situation in Mexico has reached a very dangerous tipping point. Its foreign exchange reserves are being depleted rapidly, and Mexico's main source of income is oil exports, which have been falling recently."
More importantly, the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes have caused the cost of repaying dollar-denominated debt to rise continuously.
Under multiple pressures, the Mexican peso's exchange rate system and its ability to repay its massive foreign debt are facing unprecedented challenges.
He paused, observing Lin Haoran's reaction, and continued, "We believe that a drastic adjustment is likely inevitable."
This is not just a Mexican problem; its foreign debt creditors are spread across major banks in Europe and the United States, and a default would trigger a chain reaction.
Of course, risks also contain opportunities; Mexican government bonds, the peso exchange rate, and even the stocks of related banks could experience significant price fluctuations. The intention behind this statement is quite clear.
Soros was inviting, or rather, testing whether Lin Haoran was willing to participate in a "hunt" targeting the Mexican debt crisis.
He wanted to drag Lin Haoran into this mess, so he analyzed the situation in Mexico so thoroughly, and then offered the bait of cooperation.
The other party was practically stating it outright: since you, Lin Haoran, have been proven to have an extraordinary market sense and precise timing ability, wouldn't the returns be even more astonishing if we joined forces in this impending financial storm that could sweep across Latin America?
This is both an acknowledgment and utilization of Lin Haoran's abilities, and also a deeper level of probing and binding.
Lin Haoran sneered inwardly.
Soros truly lives up to his name; he makes such a grand move right away.
He wants to tie himself to his war machine and join forces to short Mexico, which could potentially have far-reaching consequences.
While the profits are certainly tempting, the risks, ethical controversies, and the potential for a deep entanglement with Soros in the future all need to be carefully weighed.
In fact, many of these things constitute crimes!
If he really joins forces with Soros, then his future will be like Soros's, regarded by many countries as a "disruptor of financial markets" and a "plunderer of national economies," and he may even face political pressure and legal risks.
This is completely contrary to the image that Lin Haoran has planned for himself as a business leader who is rooted in Hong Kong, backed by the mainland, respected and capable of long-term development.
Therefore, he could never team up with Soros.
He's willing to make money, but he prefers to do it secretly rather than openly partner with a notorious figure like Soros.
He certainly wouldn't let the Mexican debt crisis go unaddressed.
Even if they do participate, they will do so secretly, making sure they leave no evidence and never get involved with someone like Soros.
What he needs is a discreet and precise harvest, not a high-profile alliance that makes him a target of public criticism.
“Mr. Soros’s analysis is very insightful; the potential crisis in Mexico is indeed alarming.” Lin Haoran’s tone remained calm, even carrying a hint of agreement.
"Quantum Fund's grasp of global macroeconomic risks is admirable. The opportunity you see, with its risks and rewards, is indeed very tempting."
He first gave his approval, which made a glimmer of expectation flash in Soros's eyes.
But then Lin Haoran changed the subject: "However, Mr. Soros, as you know, my main businesses and roots are in Hong Kong and in the Asia-Pacific region."
I lack in-depth understanding and corresponding local resources regarding the Latin American market, whether in terms of its political environment, economic structure, or legal regulations.
Participating in such large-scale, high-risk cross-market operations, especially those involving sovereign debt and currency exchange rates, presents too much uncertainty for me, making the risk exposure difficult to control.
He gave a very pragmatic reason: don't do what you're not familiar with, and prioritize risk control.
This aligns with the logic of a mature investor.
“More importantly,” Lin Haoran crossed his legs, his tone becoming more sincere, “as you just mentioned, once this crisis breaks out, it could trigger a chain reaction that could affect the banking systems of Europe and the United States.”
This made me even more vigilant, as my business empire is intricately connected with the financial systems of Europe and America, and many of my partners and financing channels are located there.
Participating in an action that could indirectly harm the interests of these partners is not a wise move from the perspective of business ethics and long-term interests.
I was aware of the situation in Mexico, but my team's assessment concluded that the potential gains were not worthwhile compared to the possible long-term damage to reputation and partnerships.
This reason is even more ingenious.
He portrayed himself as a "responsible" investor who values long-term partnerships and business ethics, in contrast to Soros's style of disregarding everything for profit.
This also implies that he has a vast network of interests behind him that needs to be protected, and he cannot easily take risks.
The recorder under the coffee table recorded every word he said.
He met with Soros, and if anyone wanted to cause trouble, they wouldn't be able to use this meeting to smear or accuse him.
Because throughout, he maintained a calm, rational, and refusal-oriented attitude, and all conversations were based on sound business logic and risk considerations.
Dealing with a ruthless person like Soros requires thorough preparation and careful precautions.
He even suspected that if he couldn't reach an agreement with Soros, the latter might use their meeting to spread rumors or misleading information that were detrimental to Lin Haoran.
After all, in the financial market, it is common to make unfounded accusations and exploit rumors.
Soros might very well do something like this to achieve his goals.
Therefore, secretly recording is very necessary, just in case!
Soros's expectation gradually cooled.
He could sense the polite refusal in Lin Haoran's words, and the reasons sounded quite valid and justifiable.
But he keenly sensed that this was not the whole reason.
Lin Haoran did not seem to show the excitement and greed that his peers had expected regarding this opportunity.
This was completely different from what he had expected when he came.
In Soros's view, someone like Lin Haoran, who was able to rise so quickly, was definitely a speculator.
Under normal circumstances, it would be impossible to accumulate such a vast wealth and business empire in just a few years.
Lin Haoran's success trajectory is full of precise timing and unconventional courage, which are clearly the characteristics of a "market predator" like him, Soros!
Therefore, when Soros discovered the huge opportunity in Mexico, the first potential partner he thought of was Lin Haoran, someone he considered a kindred spirit, someone who could understand and appreciate this high-risk, high-reward game.
However, Lin Haoran's reaction was like a bucket of cold water, extinguishing Soros's expectations.
Those reasons such as "unfamiliarity with the market," "concern about damaging partnerships," and "investment discipline" sound to Soros more like excuses, pretexts, or even pretense.
"Mr. Lin, do you mean that you decided not to participate in this operation because you are unfamiliar with the Latin American market and are concerned about the potential damage to your European and American partners?" Soros confirmed, his tone carrying a hint of barely perceptible disappointment and inquiry.
He originally thought that someone like Lin Haoran couldn't possibly remain unmoved in the face of such a great temptation.
He was truly disappointed at that moment.
He traveled all the way from Wall Street, not to attend a wedding, but to find allies and plan for greater interests together.
But no one expected Lin Haoran to be so pedantic and cautious, or rather, so good at disguising himself.
"That's one way to understand it," Lin Haoran nodded calmly, his expression composed.
"Thank you, Mr. Soros, for attending my wedding. I also appreciate your trust and sharing. This opportunity might be more suitable for investors who focus on global macroeconomics and have sufficient preparation and tolerance for related risks, such as the Quantum Fund."
I am not interested in whether Mexico will experience a debt crisis. My roots and future are more firmly planted in Hong Kong and the familiar land of the Asia-Pacific region.
He reiterated his strategic focus and subtly drew a line between himself and others.
Soros remained silent for a moment.
He picked up the cup of Longjing tea that he hadn't drunk yet, and finally took a small sip, seemingly savoring the aroma of the tea, and also seemingly processing Lin Haoran's response.
The tea was slightly cool, with a hint of bitterness followed by a sweet aftertaste.
“I understand.” Soros put down his teacup, his face regaining its professional, expressionless smile.
"Everyone has their own comfort zone and strategic considerations. Mr. Lin's clear understanding of his own boundaries and his maintenance of long-term partnerships are a kind of wisdom in the rapidly changing financial world."
He paused, but his tone carried a hint of something else: "However, Mr. Lin, the global market is ever-changing, and sometimes the storm won't be avoided just because you're not involved."
If the crisis in Mexico were to actually erupt, its shockwaves could very well affect global capital flows and risk sentiment. As an open international financial center, Hong Kong would likely find it difficult to remain completely unaffected.
The revival fund you have painstakingly built and the stability of Hong Kong may also face new challenges.
The other party was still unwilling to give up.
Perhaps it's because the Quantum Fund's current capabilities are insufficient to cause trouble in the Mexican market, or perhaps it's because they believe that bringing Lin Haoran into their ranks would not only strengthen their forces but also minimize the risks!
After all, if Lin Haoran's large sums of money were to enter the market, Soros believed that even if the crisis might not have occurred originally, it would eventually erupt.
On the contrary, the Quantum Fund's funds are ultimately limited. If too much is invested, and the Mexican government withstands the pressure, or the international community, especially the United States, intervenes for geopolitical reasons, the Quantum Fund may face huge risks or even losses.
By bringing in an ally like Lin Haoran, who has abundant financial resources and seems to always "make the right bets," not only are there more funds and ammunition available, but risks can also be shared, and there is even an invisible psychological advantage of being destined for greatness.
Soros had a well-thought-out plan; he wanted to turn Lin Haoran into his insurance and amplifier.
Lin Haoran understood the subtext in Soros's words and couldn't help but sneer inwardly.
You want to use me as a scapegoat and a shield?
Do you want me to use my money and "luck" to safeguard your adventure, or even take on greater risks?
What a clever scheme!
"Mr. Soros is right."
Lin Haoran nodded, his expression remaining calm.
"External risks do need to be guarded against, but we have full confidence and are well prepared for the risk resistance capabilities of Hong Kong and the newly established Renaissance Fund."
Even if we are indeed affected, we will have corresponding contingency plans and room for adjustment.
As for whether the storm from Mexico will reach Hong Kong, and how powerful it will be, it is too early to say. (End of Chapter)