Chapter 951
Mr. Lin, have you found the wrong person?
After exchanging pleasantries with Walter Riston, He Shanheng left with his assistant, and Li Guowei also left.
Their purpose in coming to the United States was to acquire Carole McKinty and McKinsey & Company, so they naturally wouldn't linger at Citibank for too long.
After seeing He Shanheng off, Lin Haoran returned to Walter Riston's office.
The assistant served Lin Haoran coffee, and suddenly only Lin Haoran and Citibank Chairman Walter Riston remained in the room.
"Mr. Lin, your trip to the United States this time must not be solely about the acquisition of Carole McKinty and McKinsey & Company, right? Knowing you as I do, you must have other important matters to discuss. Perhaps you've spotted another great investment opportunity?"
Walter Riston put down his coffee cup, his eyes filled with a mixture of curiosity and anticipation.
The Citibank chairman was utterly impressed by Lin Haoran's business acumen. He was naturally well aware of the investments made through Citibank, such as gold futures, Motorola stock, and Toyota stock.
That's why Walter Riston felt that Lin Haoran's every move was so precise, as if he had the script in advance.
Although Walter Riston was unaware of Lin Haoran's secret of having memories of his past life, he knew perfectly well that this young man's judgment on macroeconomics far surpassed that of any analyst on Wall Street.
Lin Haoran picked up his coffee cup, took a slow sip, and did not answer immediately.
Although Walter Riston had a good relationship with him, Lin Haoran never considered revealing his true thoughts.
In the business world, revealing your hand to others is the most foolish thing to do.
Even though Walter Riston was his ally, and even though Citibank was his important partner, he still needed to be cautious.
After a while, he deliberately smiled wryly and said, "Mr. Walter, I didn't see any good investment opportunities this time. You know what the situation is like in Hong Kong right now."
He didn't elaborate further, leaving Walter Riston some room for interpretation.
Upon hearing this, Walter Riston's expression became subtle.
He was certainly aware of the current situation in Hong Kong: Sino-British negotiations had reached a stalemate, market confidence had collapsed, the Hong Kong dollar had plummeted, the stock market had halved, the real estate market had collapsed, and the entire city was shrouded in gloom and despair.
As the head of Hong Kong's largest conglomerate, it is perfectly normal for Lin Haoran to transfer funds to the United States at this time to hedge against risks.
"Mr. Lin, what are your views on the future of Hong Kong?" Walter Riston asked tentatively, his gaze fixed on Lin Haoran's eyes, trying to read something from them.
Lin Haoran remained silent for a moment, then picked up his coffee cup and took another sip, his gaze becoming profound.
He couldn't avoid this question, nor could he answer it too bluntly.
Saying that Hong Kong's future is bleak is tantamount to implying that one is preparing to withdraw, which will affect Citibank's confidence in the Hong Kong market.
To say that Hong Kong has a bright future is tantamount to telling Walter Riston that his talk of "risk aversion" is just an excuse.
“Mr. Walter, I am a businessman.” Lin Haoran put down his coffee cup and said calmly, “A businessman’s instinct is to seek profit and avoid harm. No matter what the future holds for Hong Kong, I will be there because that is my root.”
But I also have to be responsible for my assets and can't let them be exposed to uncontrollable risks. This trip to the United States is just to find some good investment opportunities and diversify the risks.
As for the future of Hong Kong, I believe that China and Britain will eventually reach an agreement, and Hong Kong will not descend into chaos.
Walter Riston nodded, the searching look in his eyes fading slightly.
Because he knew that Lin Haoran's thinking was the normal mindset of a businessman.
If Lin Haoran confidently asserted that Hong Kong would definitely prosper, he would suspect that the young man was trying to fool him.
Lin Haoran's words were neither pessimistic about Hong Kong nor overly optimistic; he struck the perfect balance.
As a businessman, it is perfectly normal to make the decision to diversify risks in such a situation.
“Mr. Lin, I agree with your assessment.” Walter Riston picked up his coffee cup, took a sip, and his gaze became more profound. “Both China and Britain are major powers. Although the Hong Kong issue is thorny, we will eventually find a solution that is acceptable to both sides. However, this process will probably not be short.”
The Asian market is also a very important market for Citibank, so they have naturally conducted in-depth research there.
Lin Haoran nodded but did not reply.
He certainly knew how long the Sino-British negotiations would last—a full two years, from Margaret Thatcher's visit to China in September 1982 to the formal signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in December 1984, during which time countless rounds of games and struggles took place.
But he couldn't possibly say these things.
“Mr. Lin, if you need any assistance from Citibank in the United States, please don’t hesitate to ask,” Walter Riston said sincerely. “Whether it’s financing, mergers and acquisitions, or investment, Citibank can provide you with the best service.”
Indeed, as far as I know, you have a large cash flow in Hong Kong. Instead of letting it earn interest, wouldn't it be better to use it for something more meaningful?
Lin Haoran smiled and said, "Mr. Walter, you're trying to attract deposits for Citibank."
Walter Riston laughed and said, "Mr. Lin, you are also an important shareholder of Citibank and our executive director. We are all family. Do I need to pull you along?"
I just think that with your vision and ability, keeping money in the bank and not using it is just a number, which is such a waste. Look at all your previous investments, which one didn't make a fortune? Citibank has benefited immensely from your success.”
Lin Haoran picked up his coffee cup, swirled it gently, and stared at the dark brown liquid inside, seemingly deep in thought.
Walter Riston's words, on the surface, were a compliment, but in reality, they were a test—a test to see if Lin Haoran had any other investment plans in the United States, and to see if Citigroup could get a share of the profits.
Unfortunately, this time they are destined to disappoint the other party.
He didn't come here this time with any projects that could generate huge profits in the short term.
The Latin American debt crisis has ended, the Hong Kong real estate crisis is still at its lowest point, the Japanese stock market has not yet started to rise, and the US stock market bull market is still brewing. Although he has hundreds of billions of dollars in his hands, the real opportunity to make a big bet has not yet appeared.
Lin Haoran thought for a moment and said, "Mr. Walter, if you want good investment opportunities, I think the US stock market is a good investment opportunity. The decline before the middle of this year has basically ended. In my opinion, President Reagan's policies have played a significant role in the economic recovery of the United States."
Barring unforeseen circumstances, US stocks are expected to show a significant upward trend throughout next year. Of course, this is just my personal assessment; the specific actions taken will depend on Citigroup's own decisions.
He has already made a fortune from the Latin American debt crisis, so he is not very optimistic about the early stages of a steady bull market driven by the economic recovery of US stocks next year.
As for investing in the Latin American debt crisis, he did not involve Citibank because the situation was quite unique.
For him, the fewer people who know about his shorting of Latin America, the better!
Upon hearing this, Walter Riston's eyes lit up slightly, and he leaned forward a little.
Although Lin Haoran spoke lightly, Lin Haoran's words carried weight. This was not an ambiguous prediction, but a judgment with a clear direction.
Judging from Lin Haoran's past investment record, this judgment is almost equivalent to a prophecy.
Moreover, their Citibank team also analyzed this, and their conclusions were basically consistent with Lin Haoran's judgment: the US economy is bottoming out and rebounding, corporate profits are expected to improve, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is nearing its end, and the US stock market is indeed likely to enter a bull market next year.
However, Citigroup analysts dared not say "significant upward trend" with the same certainty as Lin Haoran, because no one can guarantee anything when it comes to predicting the stock market.
“Mr. Lin, how long do you think this upward trend can last? Citibank has suffered considerable losses from the Latin American debt crisis, and we urgently need to find new profit growth points, otherwise next year's financial report will look very bad,” Walter Riston pressed.
In reality, as America's backyard, Latin American countries are closely linked to the US financial system, with most of their foreign debt originating from major US financial institutions. Following the outbreak of the Latin American debt crisis, Citibank suffered heavy losses on loans in the region, leading to a significant increase in bad debt provisions and directly dragging down its overall profits.
It wasn't just Citibank; other financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and TD Bank also suffered heavy losses.
Such losses are unavoidable, so everyone suffers losses. In fact, for Citibank, it is not a serious mistake, and shareholders can understand.
However, if Citibank can make money in other markets while losing money in Latin America, then it's not just a matter of "understandable"; rather, it will be seen by the market as a capability—the ability to hedge risks.
This is exactly the kind of ability Walter Riston wants.
He has already planned to retire and is now fully grooming John Reed as his successor. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, he will hand over the chairmanship to John Reed within a year or two.
Therefore, he hopes to leave Citibank with an impressive track record and a solid profit foundation for John Reed before retiring.
The losses from the Latin American debt crisis are irreversible, but if he can make it back in the US stock market, his retirement will be much more secure.
He led Citibank for over 15 years, starting in 1967, and his achievement in transforming Citibank from a regional bank into a global giant has always been a source of great pride for him.
He did not want Citigroup's performance to decline sharply in the final years before his retirement due to the Latin American debt crisis, thus leaving an imperfect end to his career.
Lin Haoran could understand this feeling.
Lin Haoran smiled and said, "Mr. Walter, I understand your thoughts. I can't answer this question right now. The rise and fall of the stock market is affected by too many factors, such as interest rates, inflation, employment, corporate profits, and the international situation..."
Any change in any variable could alter the trend. I can only say that, in my judgment, US stocks will likely rise next year, but I cannot guarantee how much, when, or whether there will be a correction along the way. Whether Citigroup follows suit is a decision you and your team must make.
Walter Riston nodded, the anxiety in his eyes fading slightly.
Although Lin Haoran did not give a clear commitment, he at least provided a direction and a general timeframe, which was much more useful than the ambiguous analysis reports within Citibank.
He knew, of course, that no one could guarantee the stock market's trajectory, and Lin Haoran's actions were already quite sincere.
If anyone else had said these words, he would have scoffed at them, but Lin Haoran was different.
Citigroup has conducted a detailed analysis of this young man's investment record over the past few years, and every move he made was astonishingly accurate.
Walter Riston even told John Reed in private that Lin Haoran's judgment on macroeconomics was the best he had ever seen in his forty years of business, without exception.
“Mr. Lin, Citibank will carefully study your suggestions and will also take appropriate risk control measures.” Walter Riston raised his coffee cup to Lin Haoran. “Regardless of the outcome, Citibank appreciates your honesty.”
Lin Haoran also picked up his coffee cup, gently clinked it against his, and then drank it all in one gulp.
After thinking for a moment, Lin Haoran asked, "Mr. Walter, do you know Bernard Arnault?"
To enter the world's top luxury goods market, you must have a suitable leader.
The renowned luxury goods tycoon from his previous life is clearly the most suitable candidate.
He had read about the legendary life of this world's richest man in his previous life, and knew that before entering the luxury goods industry, he must have been doing real estate business in New York, and not doing so well.
He graduated from École Polytechnique in Paris and took over the family architecture company at the age of 25. He persuaded his father to disband the architecture department and transform into real estate, which was very successful for a time.
Until François Mitterrand, the fourth president of France, came to power and implemented nationalization policies, Arnault, like many French entrepreneurs, moved to the United States and developed real estate in New York and Florida.
However, his business in the United States did not go smoothly. Most of the apartment projects he developed were unsold, and his relationships with local developers, unions, and the government were not as smooth as they were in France.
In the original timeline, it was during this period of despair that Arnault boarded a taxi in New York and overheard the driver say, "I don't know who the French president is, but I know Christian Dior." It was then that he suddenly realized the power of brands and resolutely returned to France to devote himself to the luxury goods industry.
In 1983, he returned to France and, at the cost of mortgaging his family business, acquired the nearly bankrupt Boussac Group with other investors. He then removed Christian Dior from the company and revived Dior in just two years.
He then took advantage of the internal power struggles within LVMH and the stock market crash to buy up large amounts of stock at low prices, eventually becoming the head of LVMH and earning the nickname "the wolf in cashmere" in the industry.
Now, it is December 1982, and none of these things have happened yet.
Arnault had no idea he would become the godfather of luxury goods. He was still worrying about unsold apartments, trying to meet more investors in New York's social circles, and doing the same things as most real estate developers: buying land, building, and selling houses.
This is a window of opportunity, a window that Lin Haoran doesn't want to miss.
Walter Riston frowned slightly upon hearing the name "Bernard Arnault," as if searching his memory for something.
After a few seconds, his brow relaxed, and he nodded: "Arnault, Frenchman, in real estate, right? He should be a Citibank client, currently owing Citibank a lot of money. So, Mr. Lin, are you interested in him?"
The real estate industry is inherently a highly leveraged sector. Arnault was involved in real estate in New York, and Citibank is the largest bank in New York State, so it's not surprising that he took out a loan from Citibank.
As chairman of Citibank, Walter Riston would at least know the names of his major loan clients, even if he wasn't familiar with them.
While Arnault's loan portfolio wasn't the largest, it was still among the top French-American real estate developers.
Upon hearing this, Lin Haoran was slightly delighted. What a coincidence! He had been worried about how to find Bernard Arnault, but he had stumbled upon him by sheer chance.
The other party turned out to be a Citibank client, which made things much easier.
He smiled nonchalantly and said casually, "Mr. Walter, I heard about Mr. Bernard Arnault from a friend of mine in Hong Kong. He said he is a promising young entrepreneur, and I would like to get to know him."
Walter Riston was somewhat surprised.
With Lin Haoran's current influence in the business world, it is in no way inferior to his.
In particular, his prediction of the US stock market decline almost made Lin Haoran a legend in the American financial world.
Moreover, Lin Haoran's wealth is top-tier even in the United States.
Walter Riston couldn't help but wonder what was so special about this Arnault that made Lin Haoran personally ask him.
He thought for a moment and said to Lin Haoran, "Mr. Lin, please wait a moment. I'll have someone retrieve Mr. Arno's information."
Lin Haoran nodded.
Walter Riston made a phone call to his secretary.
About ten minutes later, a young woman walked in with a document, which was Bernard Arnault's file.
Walter Riston first looked at it carefully, but the more he looked, the more confused he became.
After reading it, he handed the information to Lin Haoran and said with a puzzled look, "Mr. Lin, are you sure you haven't come to the wrong person?"
According to reports, Mr. Arnault's real estate ventures in the United States have not been very successful. Most of his apartment projects have been slow to sell, and his relationships with local New York developers, unions, and the government have been strained. In addition, he has defaulted on his loan to Citibank twice, and his credit record is not very good.
If it weren't for the fact that his debt ratio hadn't exceeded the warning line, Citibank would have already classified his projects as non-performing assets.
Why would you be interested in a Frenchman who's had a disastrous time in the New York real estate industry? (End of Chapter)